– By S.Mihir
This year marked the 30th anniversary of India’s diplomatic relations with the Central Asian nations of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. This event was marked by the first India-Central Asia Summit on 27th January 2022. Leaders of these countries looked forward to building a long-term, comprehensive and enduring India-Central Asia partnership based on mutual trust, understanding and friendship. They deliberated upon several issues such as sustainable development,trade,security,culture and extended proposals to strengthen dialogue,peace and cooperation in Asia.
Central Asia has often been referred to as the global chess board. These countries were in a bad state at the time of their independence post the fall of the soviet union. They were in dire need of funds to stay afloat and establish themselves, lending agencies did not support their communist ideologies and turned a blind eye. They found economic respite through loans from the third world country of China. Post the US Invasion of Afghanistan, countries all over the world came to understand the strategic importance these nations hold in the region and at the forefront of these countries was India trying to establish its presence.
The current geo-political scenario is highly unstable with the rise of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan coupled with the coronavirus pandemic. Western countries have stopped thinking about central asia since the withdrawal of NATO troops from the region. China’s growing presence leaning towards becoming a hegemony and the overall lack of a sound political alternative and approach are the main reasons for caution regarding the area.
A word used multiple times in the official statements of the summit was human-centric, this word holds absolute importance in the context of India’s approach in Central Asia.In general terms human centric means an approach that is marked by humanistic values and devotion to human welfare. If we see the path that India chose in Afghanistan post the invasion we can observe that it can be termed as human centric because it relied mainly on humanitarian aid, developmental projects and socio-cultural ties with one another. The same approach can be observed being implemented with other central asian countries. The main aim of these relations is human welfare first. Military relations are not India’s priority in this case but a necessity nevertheless in the current scenario.
It’s safe to say that the newly developing diplomatic advancements are mutually beneficial to all countries involved and help India in gaining allies in the highly unstable region.There are multiple reasons why India is taking an active interest in Central Asia which was not the case a few decades ago, it helps India in furthering their dream of becoming a global superpower and become a driving force in Asian geo-politics. India is planning on being a major stakeholder in the region by investing in various High Impact development projects in all five countries through a line of credit of $1 Billion dollars extended to them. This money shall be invested in various projects which shall be identified at a later stage in the next few years. This shows the intention of being an infinite player who has long term plans for the region.
India allowed access of the Chabahar port to the Central asian countries to solve their trade issues because of their geographical liability of being landlocked nations. They also decided to Include Chabahar port to the International North-South Trade corridor which is a 7200 km long multimodal transportation network encompassing sea,road and rail routes. This would enable them to use the port for trade activities and will help in ease of doing business.Not just goods and services the trade routes will also be used to supply vaccines and other medical supplies to these countries. They decided to establish a Joint Working group on Chabahar to address issues of free movement of goods and services between India and Central Asian countries.One of India’s first investments in Central Asia was the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Pipeline or TAPI in short a natural gas pipeline an important resource bearing investment which right now lies dormant due to the regime change in Afghanistan. India needs the nations and their support in negotiating with the Taliban regime and resume the working of the pipeline or else it would bear no payoffs from this investment.
Given the fact that the Taliban government in Afghanistan is loyal to Pakistan, counter-terrorism efforts in the region need to be ramped up by India with the support of these nations to counter their reign of terror.Their decision to hold joint counter-terrorism exercises annually would increase the familiarity between the defence forces of these nations. India also trains officers of central asian countries at military training establishments such as the Indian Military Academy and the National Defence Academy. A Joint Working group on Afghanistan at the senior officials level to note their regional consensus on the issue related to Afghanistan, which includes formation of a truly representative and inclusive government, combating terrorism and drug trafficking, central role of the UN, providing immediate humanitarian assistance for the people of Afghanistan and preserving the rights of women, children and other national ethnic groups and minorities.
The regime change in Afghanistan also means that Indian investments in Afghanistan are at stake, coupled with the growing power of Taliban as the rulers of the country. The security aspects of this situation dictate that India needs to create a military coalition with the Central Asian countries in case the situation gets out of hand. India also owns Farkhor air base in Tajikistan which is strategically close to both Pakistan and Afghanistan, with active personnel posted in the region. Troop strength in this base can be increased given the current scenario and could act as a launchpad for any emergency intervention in the region.
Nearly half of the population in Central Asia is not digitally connected which is a huge disadvantage considering the online shift of workplaces/educational institutions all over the world due to the pandemic.The IT Taskforce/Line of credit extended by India can be utilised to install the necessary infrastructure in the region. Robust connectivity infrastructure can mitigate upto 50 percent of the negative economic impacts posed by the pandemic. A 10 percent increase in broadband connectivity can add at least 1 percent to economic growth.
Strategic importance of this summit can also be held as India’s attempt to catch-up with China’s long standing presence in the region post the fall of the Soviet Union. China has already poured in billions of dollars all across the region from economic bailouts to energy projects and the infamous Belt and Road Initiative. Many countries who were not able to repay Chinese loans fell into a debt trap and had to transfer greater control of their assets to china. India’s growing presence helps tackle Chinese economic expansionism and provides these nations an alternative for economic relief.
We can easily say that the first India-Central Asia Summit was a resounding success as all the leaders vowed to hold the summit every two years. India has now taken drastic steps for good bilateral decisions. As established earlier India is now on its way to become a driving force in the region and prove itself as an alternative to Chinese debt diplomacy. The fact that Central Asian leaders were earlier invited to be the chief guests at the 73rd Republic Day parade shows that India is willing to build a strong relationship with these nations and intend to show it to the world.
References :
https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/196264/PR160202_Resetting-Indias-Engagment.pdf
www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Scenarios_SouthCaucasusCentralAsia_Report_2014.pdf
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