– Aditya Sharma
– Intern, IPPCS’21
– Zakir Husain Delhi College, Delhi University
In a quarter half of a century that witnessed the emergence of a pandemic, wildfires raging across continents, protests-nearly-turning-into-riots in the world’s largest democracy, melting in the Arctic Ocean, the most impactful political event of this era is nonetheless the withdrawal of american troops from the region of Afghanistan, marking the end of this nearly twenty year long ‘war on terrorism.’
The withdrawal which formally took place in the context of the ‘Doha Agreement’ signed between the Trump administration and the Taliban in February 2020, and subsequently saw President Ashraf Ghani escaping to a foreign country, the gunpoint takeover of an entire state, and the establishment of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan raises many questions- Did the Taliban’s guerrilla-inspired attrition warfare manage to defeat America? Was this the correct time for a withdrawal? Should America never have invaded Afghanistan in the first place?
As important as these retrospective questions are, the questions we must ask and answer first are of a slightly different nature- the ones concerning our collective futures.
More specifically, where does India- a country with great goodwill among the Afghanis, and a huge stakeholder in the Afghani nation-building process, now do? Should it continue to maintain this studied silence? Should it recognise the de-facto government of the now Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan? Or is this situation, perhaps, an opportunity in disguise?
Assuming that the Taliban can at the very least maintain the perception that they’re not medieval monsters jumping out of history and are simply conservative, India, as well as most European countries are most likely going to eventually engage with them- in matters ranging from trade and security to women rights.
Meanwhile in India, the National Security Advisor of India Ajit Doval recently met Secretary of the Russian Security Council General Nikolai Patrushev for high-level consultations on Afghanistan amid the Taliban takeover. This meeting being a follow up to a conversation between PM Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin shared a phone call on August 24, and agreed on consulting each other while dealing with Afghanistan.
The meetings, historically cordial relations between New Delhi and Moscow, and the plethora of common interests that the two states share especially in the context of Afghanistan substantiate the assumption that the two would come up with collaborative, or at the very least, complementary strategies in Afghanistan.
This partnership would be more evident in the effort towards strengthening central asian countries against the threat of radical islamic terrorism which has effectively multiplied exponentially due to the events that have transpired in Afghanistan since America’s withdrawal. The two states consulting each other and partnering on dealing with the new Afghanistan is likely to benefit them on mutual points of interest.
Islamic Terrorism
The American withdrawal comes at a point when the major radical islamic terror outfits are at a decline – many experts worry, however, that the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan could become a safe haven, or even a training ground for these outfits. The Taliban taking over Afghanistan is exactly what these outfits need for a revival; something that could set back global efforts against terror by many decades. India and Russia would be looking to ensure that this plausibility does not become reality, for these particular reasons-
- Firstly, India- a state that has been amongst the most vocal in favour of building a global consensus against terror would logically be apprehensive about having a state right around it’s backyard become a launchpad for terror activities. As the region of PoK also shares physical boundaries with Afghanistan, it would multiply the propensity of terror attacks against the people of Jammu & Kashmir.
- For Russia, overall, the primary terrorist threats against the Russian Federation are presented by the Islamist insurgents in the North Caucasus which have majorly been dealt with due to extensive counter-terror organisations in as well as in the surroundings of the region- if Taliban were to become a terrorist hub, however, it could lead to a revival- moral, economic, and political, and could present Russia with new challenges and threats.
Central Asian Interests
Afghanistan has the potential to destabilise the entire Central Asian region. There is great concern that Islamic fundamentalism, terrorism, might ‘spillover’ from Afghanistan to Central Asian Countries.
- Its geographical location positioning Afghanistan as a primary economic corridor with Central Asia for India; a region whose geopolitical importance was earlier expressed by MOS Shri E. Ahmed at First India Central Asia Dialogue in June, 2012, as well as the Middle East.
- The Taliban is infamous for its endeavours in drug peddling- both Kashmir and central Asian countries could be potential marketplaces, given that most of the monetary aid to Afghanistan has been frozen by the World Bank, the Taliban may return to their traditional methods of fund-raising.
- Russia’s foreign policy in context of Central Asian countries has been that of promoting security and military-technical cooperation, facilitating energy projects in oil and gas sector, and hydropower. The Taliban’s increasing influence in the region can directly challenge these interests.
The Way Forward?
We therefore see that Afghanistan’s new regime raises overlapping points of concern for New Delhi and Moscow; that and the historically amiable relations between the two states, and the communication between their respective contemporary leaderships prime them to partner in matters to Afghanistan. A partnership in dealing with Afghanistan would yield manifold benefits, as engaging collectively would put a greater impetus on the Taliban to take cognisance of Indian and Russian interests and make it less likely for Afghanistan’s new government to undermine them. The great new Afghan game has begun, and the best way forward for India and Russia would be to take heed of their common interests and work collectively in pursuit of them.
References
https://www.reuters.com/world/russias-putin-indias-modi-discuss-afghanistan-phone-call-2021-08-24/
https://www.jstor.org/stable/26326421?seq=2#metadata_info_tab_contents
https://carnegieindia.org/2019/12/01/realizing-india-s-strategic-interests-in-central-asia-pub-80576
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58325545
https://www.ispionline.it/en/pubblicazione/importance-central-asia-russias-foreign-policy-24071
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