– By Qazi Furooz Shamas
With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, the world witnessed an unexpected turn of events. It was remarkable in the sense that such a bold move was last seen during the Cold War era, after which the world had been restored to a state of relative peace. However, before understanding how the crisis unfolded, it’s essential to consider the histories of both countries, which were once bound by the Soviet Union. Despite the fact that a large portion of the population was ethnic Russian, Ukraine voted for independence shortly after the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991. Following Ukraine’s declaration of independence, the Budapest Memorandum was signed, in which all signatories, including Russia, agreed to preserve Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial rights.
However, both Russia and Ukraine have a thousand-year history that either side can describe as common or complex. During the Cold War, Ukraine was the cornerstone of the Soviet Union. It was the second–most populous and powerful of the fifteen Soviet republics, serving as the core of the union’s agricultural output, defence industries, and military, which included the Black Sea Fleet and some of the nuclear arsenal. Although the two sides parted on a relatively peaceful note, they have been embroiled in a resentful conflict since 2014, when the former seized Crimea, a Ukrainian peninsula, in the aftermath of the Euromaidan uprising.
Why the invasion in the first place?
Based on Russian justifications for this rapid invasion, it would be inaccurate to suggest that the Russia-Ukraine crisis originated in February of this year. To understand the reason behind it, we need to look back in time, particularly to 2008, when the West was on the verge of extending a Membership Action Plan (MAP) to Ukraine but was stymied by Russian animosity, primarily motivated by two factors: security and nationalism. As far as security is concerned, Russia has consistently expressed concern over Ukraine’s inclination towards the West, and it would not be an exaggeration to state that Moscow’s security concerns seem to be well-founded, considering that the majority of Europe is already a part of NATO, and therefore, any further expansion towards eastern Europe, especially Ukraine, that serves as a buffer state between Russia and the EU, is a significant threat to the country’s security. In this light, Russia has repeatedly asked the West for a legally binding guarantee that NATO will not conduct military operations in eastern Europe or Ukraine. Second, Russia believes Ukraine to be an intrinsic part of its history and culture since both countries were “one” under the Soviet umbrella. The Russian President, Vladmir Putin, believes that Russia and Ukraine are linked by some sort of “inner energy” that stems from shared values, beliefs, and history.
How did the war escalate?
Early in the year 2021, Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, had requested the United States to allow the country to join NATO. This was met with stiff opposition from Russia, which began sending troops to the Ukrainian border for “training drills” in the early spring of 2021. By December, the number of Russian forces had risen to thousands. Putin made demands to NATO and the United States, asking that Ukraine never be accepted into the alliance. The Biden administration, however, rejected the proposal, prompting Russia to threaten the West with a possible attack if Ukraine’s membership in NATO is not halted.
With no side willing to back down, Russia recognised the two breakaway territories of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states and sent troops into eastern Ukraine. The United States retaliated by imposing restrictions on Russian corporations and banks, as well as by barring Russia from accessing Western financial institutions. However, in spite of the imposition of sanctions, Russia ordered military operations in the eastern Ukrainian territory of Donbas as part of a special military operation aimed at maintaining peace and “demilitarising” the area.
While Ukraine has called for peace talks, it has also accused Russia of committing a war crime by obstructing humanitarian supplies, causing a humanitarian crisis in Ukrainian cities, and then using that as a pretext for locals to cooperate with Russian invaders. President Zelensky also cautioned Putin of the costs that Russia would suffer if it does not cease the “unnecessary” incursions following the Russian mortar attack near the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.
Putin, on the other hand, blames Ukraine for impeding talks with Russia by putting forth impractical proposals. There has also been a rift between the United States and China, with the former warning the latter against any kind of assistance to Russia to evade accountability for the Ukraine invasion.
Way Forward
The most important consideration for the entire international community should be how to de-escalate the current crisis, which could otherwise escalate to the point of irreversibility. That is to say, as the military build-up in the region increases, so does the level of uncertainty. As a consequence, while the Russian invasion of Ukraine has so far relied solely on conventional weapons, whether those be tanks clunking off the highways or bombers hovering overhead, there is a possibility that nuclear weapons could be used in the event of a shocking escalation – not to mention that nuclear weapons remain a key part of the security order that emerged after the end of World War II. Most likely, however, there is little chance of nuclear weapons being used in the situation at hand unless Russia faces a threat of military intervention, which again depends on whether the US and its NATO allies take any sort of military action in the coming months.
All in all, the situation in Ukraine appears to be heading towards a deadlock, which is the last thing we want. To arrive at a workable solution, each side’s concerns and demands must be properly considered. Any impediment to it will only prolong the war and perhaps escalate it further, which is in no one’s interest, whether the parties in conflict or the side actors in this war.
onducted a total of five underground nuclear tests, breaking a 24-year self-imposed moratorium on nuclear testing. Pakistan followed, claiming 5 tests on May 28, 1998, and an additional test on May 30. The unannounced tests created a global storm of criticism, as well as a serious setback for decades of U.S. nuclear nonproliferation efforts in South Asia. On May 13, 1998, President Clinton imposed economic and military sanctions on India, mandated by Section 102 of the Arms Export Control Act (AECA), and applied the same sanctions to Pakistan on May 30. Some effects of the sanctions on India included: termination of $21 million in FY1998 economic development assistance; postponement of $1.7 billion in lending by the International Financial Institutions (IFI), as supported by the Group of Eight (G-8) leading industrial nations; prohibition on loans or credit from U.S. banks to the government of India; and termination of Foreign Military Sales under the Arms Export Control Act. Humanitarian assistance, food, or other agricultural commodities are excepted from sanctions under the law. 
The first ministerial level meeting of QUAD was held on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. Before this, the QUAD had
AusIndEx is an exercise between India and Australia which was first held in 2015.The Australian 
On recommendations of the Japanese government, the four countries met at Manila, Philippines for ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) originally, but also ended up having a meeting of what we call the first meeting of four nation states on issues of 
On his official visit to India, Japanese PM Mr. Shinzo Abe reinforced the ties of two nations, i.e., Japan and India with his famous speech about 
In 2007, Japanese President Shinzo Abe resigned from his post citing health reasons. This had a significant impact on QUAD as he was the architect & advocate of QUAD. His successor, Yasuo Fukuda, did not take up QUAD with such zeal leading to dormancy of the forum. (
Japan earthquake and tsunami of 2011, also called Great Sendai Earthquake or Great Tōhoku Earthquake, was a 9.0 magnitude earthquake which struck below the floor of the Western Pacific at 2:49 PM. The powerful earthquake affected the northeastern coast of Honshu, Japan’s main island, and also initiated a series of large tsunami waves that devastated coastal areas of Japan, which also led to a major nuclear accident. Japan received aid from India, US, Australia as well as other countries. US Navy aircraft carrier was dispatched to the area and Australia sent search-and-rescue teams. 
India and Australia signed the 
The India-Japan Agreement for Cooperation in the Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy was signed on 11 November, 2016 and came into force on 20 July, 2017 which was representative of strengthening ties between India and Japan. Diplomatic notes were exchanged between Dr. S. Jaishankar and H.E. Mr. Kenji Hiramatsu, Ambassador of Japan to India. (
The foreign ministry
The Officials of QUAD member countries met in Singapore on November 15, 2018 for consultation on regional & global issues of common interest. The main discussion revolved around connectivity, sustainable development, counter-terrorism, maritime and cyber security, with the view to promote peace, stability and prosperity in the 
The 23rd edition of trilateral Malabar maritime exercise between India, US and Japan took place on 26 September- 04 October, 2019 off the coast of Japan. 
After the first ministerial level meeting of QUAD in September, 2019, the senior officials of US, Japan, India and Australia again met for consultations in Bangkok on the margins of the East Asia Summit. Statements were issued separately by the four countries. Indian Ministry of External Affairs said “In statements issued separately by the four countries, MEA said, “proceeding from the strategic guidance of their Ministers, who met in New York City on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly recently, the officials exchanged views on ongoing and additional practical cooperation in the areas of connectivity and infrastructure development, and security matters, including counterterrorism, cyber and maritime security, with a view to promoting peace, security, stability, prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region.”
US 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue was held on 18 December, 2019, in Washington DC. Secretary of State Michael R. Pompeo and Secretary of Defense Mark T. Esper will host Indian Minister of External Affairs Dr. S. Jaishankar and Minister of Defense Shri Rajnath Singh. The discussion focussed on deepening bilateral strategic and defense cooperation, exchanging perspectives on global developments, and our shared leadership in the Indo-Pacific region.The two democracies signed the Industrial Security Annex before the 2+2 Dialogue. Assessments of the situation in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and the Indian Ocean region in general were shared between both countries. (
The foreign ministers of QUAD continued their discussions from the last ministerial level meeting in 2019, on 6 October, 2020. While there was no joint statement released, all countries issued individual readouts. As per the issue readout by India, the discussion called for a coordinated response to the challenges including financial problems emanating from the pandemic, best practices to combat Covid-19, increasing the resilience of supply chains, and enhancing access to affordable vaccines, medicines and medical equipment. There was also a focus on maintaining stability in the Indo-Pacific region amidst growing tensions. Australian media release mentions “We emphasised that, especially during a pandemic, it was vital that states work to ease tensions and avoid exacerbating long-standing disputes, work to counter disinformation, and refrain from malicious cyberspace activity. Ministers reiterated that states cannot assert maritime claims that are inconsistent with international law, particularly the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).”
On September 24, President Biden hosted Prime Minister Scott Morrison of Australia, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, and Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga of Japan at the White House for the first-ever in-person Leaders’ Summit of the QUAD. The leaders released a Joint Statement which summarised their dialogue and future course of action. The regional security of the Indo-Pacific and strong confidence in the ASEAN remained on the focus along with response to the Pandemic. 
The QUAD Vaccine Partnership was announced at the first QUAD Summit on 12 March 2021 where QUAD countries agreed to deliver 1.2 billion vaccine doses globally. The aim was to expand and finance vaccine manufacturing and equipping the Indo-Pacific to build resilience against Covid-19. The launch of a senior-level QUAD Vaccine Experts Group, comprised of top scientists and officials from all QUAD member governments was also spearheaded. 
Although the Tsunami Core group had to be disbanded on fulfilment of its purpose, however the quadrilateral template that formed remained intact as a successful scaffolding of four countries, as stated by authors Patrick Gerard Buchan and Benjamin Rimland in their diplomatic brief about QUAD ( you can access the brief at 
Secretary of State Colin Powell stated that the Core Tsunami Group was to be disbanded and folded and clubbed with the broader United Nations led Relief Operations. In a Tsunami Relief Conference in Jakarta, Secretary Powell stated that 
Soon after the Earthquake and Tsunami crisis, humanitarian reliefs by countries, viz., US, India, Japan, and Australia started to help the 13 havoc-stricken countries. The US initially promised $ 35 Millions in aid. However, on 29
At 7:59AM local time, an earthquake of 9.1 magnitude (undersea) hit the coast of Sumatra, an Indonesian island. As a result of the same, massive waves of Tsunami triggered by the earthquake wreaked havoc for 7 hours across the Indian Ocean and to the coastal areas as far away as East Africa. The infamous Tsunami killed around 225,000 people, with people reporting the height of waves to be as high as 9 metres, i.e., 30 feet. Indonesia, Srilanka, India, Maldives, Thailand sustained horrendously massive damage, with the death toll exceeding 200,000 in Northern Sumatra’s Ache province alone. A great many people, i.e., around tens of thousands were found dead or missing in Srilanka and India, mostly from Andaman and Nicobar Islands of Indian territory. Maldives, being a low-lying country, also reported casualties in hundreds and more, with several non-Asian tourists reported dead or missing who were vacationing. Lack of food, water, medicines burgeoned the numbers of casualties, with the relief workers finding it difficult to reach the remotest areas where roads were destroyed or civil war raged. Long-term environmental damage ensued too, as both natural and man-made resources got demolished and diminished.
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