– By Harshita Dangwal
“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War
A brief history of time
Located in South Asia, Afghanistan is a beautiful and multiethnic landlocked neighbouring country of India. Despite their proximity, these two nations share a deeply rooted sense of integrity, multilateralism, humanitarian aid and solidarity that has boosted their diplomatic relations even further over the years. There is no doubt that India’s ties to Afghanistan have been historically exemplary, whether through the 1950’s Treaty of Friendship or diplomatic recognition of Soviet-backed Afghanistan during the 1980s or assistance in the overthrow of the Taliban in the 1990s or a shared love for the culture of both nations.
The Republic of India has always been a strong supporter of various construction and re-construction projects in Afghanistan, the largest regional provider of humanitarian assistance during the 1990s Taliban era and the fifth largest global donor of funds to strengthen the Afghan education system. Despite various challenges over the years, both nations were going strong in terms of mutual bureaucracy and assistance.
What went wrong?
Back in the 1990s, The Taliban, a predominantly Pashtun Islamic fundamentalist group emerged in Northen Pakistan following the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan. It has been recognized as one of the many terrorist organizations that have committed violence under the pretence of restoring peace and security under their own austere interpretation of Islamic law.
On February 29, 2020, the United States and the Taliban signed an agreement in Doha to end the war in Afghanistan. Thousands of miles away, in Kabul, U.S. Secretary of Defense Mark Esper stood next to Afghan President Ashraf Ghani at a news conference and issued a joint declaration. It outlined a four-stage process for a “comprehensive and sustainable peace agreement,” culminating in a “permanent and comprehensive ceasefire.”
Lately, with the Taliban seizing control of Afghanistan and being recognised as non-state actors, it becomes extremely important to address the unstable administration and its possible implications to India’s long term interests.
With the Taliban getting power in Afghanistan, there has been a continuous structural shift in the bilateral relations between the nations. As a consequence of the February 29 agreement, it was deemed fairly probable that the Afghan government would initiate direct talks with the Taliban with respect to control & governance of the country’s state of affairs which in turn would have allowed India to reposition its imperatives and talk to Taliban factions with a clearer sense of political purpose. However, this probability popped like a bubble when Afghan President Ashraf Ghani fled the country as soon as Taliban militants advanced the capital, Kabul on 15th August.
“Leaving Kabul was the most difficult decision of my life,” Ghani communicated, adding that he was sorry he “could not make it end differently”.
After the President stepped down, Afghan governance and negotiations with the Taliban stalled with citizens panicking over yet another traumatic future of the landlocked nation.
Hence, seeing the Taliban regime with power and position in hand, the citizens of the country began to flee and seek refuge in neighbouring countries so as to escape from what is believed to be a harsh rule of the Taliban in years to come. Now, as the hard reality sets in, worldwide nations have recognised ‘diplomacy’ as the de facto method in engaging with the new ruling regime of the Taliban.
The way forward – the Indian perspective
The official Indian position on reconciliation supports “an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan-controlled process for enduring peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan.”
As a consequence of the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan and the resulting political instability, India is obligated to proceed with caution and advance diplomacy. It needs to identify and mitigate expected risks that come with the Taliban regime.
India has also been able to invest in Afghanistan’s future partially because of the presence of U.S.-led troops and the relative stability it brought. With this stability at risk, India needs to urgently reposition its priorities.
As aforementioned, India-Afghanistan relations have always been bilaterally efficient. More than 20 years of a relationship that dates back centuries is at stake if India doesn’t intervene and continues to stay ignorant. According to statistics – the Taliban’s possible triumph also threatens $3 billion worth of Indian investment in various projects — dams, roads, trade infrastructure. India’s assistance to Afghanistan: No part of Afghanistan today is untouched by the 400-plus projects that India has undertaken in all 34 of Afghanistan’s provinces.
Possible risks:
- It’s no surprise that the Taliban’s infamous history with terrorism is the major de facto of Afghanistan’s future. U.S.-Afghanistan’s agreement to combat terrorism on Afghani soil is ambiguous and little clarity exists as to how non-state actors are planning o implement and enforce this consensus.
- Another cause for concern is Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate, which has been linked to the Taliban’s Haqqani Group numerous times and proves to be a possible threat to national security.
- Moreover, the Taliban regime and its violent record in the past makes it hard to trust them blindly and therefore shouldn’t be taken at face value.
How can India engage?
India organized the November Afghan regional security dialogue at a time when most of Afghanistan’s neighbours were recalibrating their positions on the Taliban regime. The joint declaration of India, Russia, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan highlighted the need for a more inclusive Afghan government while emphasizing concern about terrorism, terror financing, and radicalization in Afghanistan.
Therefore, India can no longer afford to ignore the option of engaging more in international negotiations and even talking to certain sections of the Taliban as part of a broader diplomatic initiative. India’s long-term interests in Afghanistan will be adversely affected if it leaves the reconciliation process primarily to an unstable government in Kabul.
With a puzzling environment and a cryptic future that surrounds Afghanistan now, India can engage in the following ways to protect its national interest while at the same time extending humanitarian support to Afghani civilians:
- Diplomatic Engagement via Special envoy: India should consider appointing a special envoy/ representative dedicated to Afghan reconciliation. By reaching out to Taliban representatives and ensuring that Indian views are heard at every meeting, the envoy can expand engagement with the Afghan government and other political players. It will also enable a healthy and transparent discussion on what now stands next for the citizens of Afghanistan.
- Continued Training and Investments: As it did in the past, India should continue providing more efficient military training to Afghan security forces and invest in longer-term capacity-building programs. The National Directorate of Security (for example, by providing training and sharing intelligence) should be actively supported and invested in. Finally, given the continued levels of violence and the impact of the coronavirus on the Afghan economy, India should expand its development assistance for humanitarian aid and restructure the face of the new Afghan.
- Together in spirit: India should think about expanding its engagements with Iran and Russia, exploring the possibility of cooperation with China (however limited it may be), and establishing a working relationship with the United States regarding Afghanistan. A broader diplomatic initiative is necessary in order to identify convergence zones. This does not mean forcing competing interests to align; rather, it implies investing in a wider diplomatic initiative.
- Investing in tourism: As cryptic as it may sound, it is high time the world knows what goes on in Afghanistan. India, along with other members of the state can assist in developing the economy of Afghanistan by conducting cultural exchange programmes or tourism activities under the purview of the Taliban regime who can certainly take a lesson from the books of culturally diverse nations around the world mitigating risk and working together towards a progressive future.
Believe it or not, the Taliban regime is here to stay. Therefore, the worldwide nations can no longer ignore the needs of Afghanistan, even if it means assisting the supposedly new government. At the end of the day, it is the citizens that shall require maximum support in terms of investment in education, food security and a better lifestyle to evolve and develop the nation of Afghanistan as it used to be. To help the people of Afghanistan overcome the losses and replace them with a better perspective and a safe future of promised freedom, the developed and developing countries must extend their own assistance and the multilateral institutions like the United Nations must provide a solid basis of support.
References :
- “What Is The Taliban?”. Council On Foreign Relations, 2022, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/taliban-afghanistan.
- Rudra Chaudhuri, Shreyas Shende. “Dealing With The Taliban: India’S Strategy In Afghanistan After U.S. Withdrawal”. Carnegie India, 2022, https://carnegieindia.org/2020/06/02/dealing-with-taliban-india-s-strategy-in-afghanistan-after-u.s.-withdrawal-pub-81951.
- “India’S Search For A New Role In Afghanistan”. Middle East Institute, 2022, https://www.mei.edu/publications/indias-search-new-role-afghanistan.
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