– By Mrigu Sambyal
Heraclitus aptly said that nothing is permanent except change, one can relate to this dictum now more than ever. Change and evolution is the key principle that governs the dynamic existence of the world, more or less controlled by the social animal driven by economic and political motives. When the German geopolitician Karl Haushofer first coined the term “Indo-Pacific” in the 1920s, he was evidently well ahead of his time (inter-war period) to envision this region, spread across 20 of the world’s 33 megacities, becoming the coronary artery of the 21st century’s geo-political and economic discourse.
Introduction
Prima facie, there has been a significant shift of worldview towards Indo-Pacific from Euro-Atlantic dimensions in a world undergoing profound geo-political and economic transformation. As the Indo-Pacific is increasingly becoming a playground of future power struggle, one cannot deny the fact that India is a major stakeholder in this regard, given its strategic location in the Indian Ocean. This also suggests that European Union and member states’ partnership with India is sine qua non for one of the biggest trading partners in the Indo-Pacific region. However the tropical waters of the Indian Ocean and the Pacific seem to boil as this region has become the hotbed of geo-politics. The Indo-Pacific region is witnessing an upsurge in convergence and divergence of interests of various stakeholders resulting in various threats, increasing military activity, cross-heads in trade policies and competing perceptions of regional order.
In this zero-sum game, every stakeholder is left with three choices: either to safely equidistant themselves from this “power construct” and remain a passive player, or to accept and accordingly align their foreign policy in line with the emerging world order, or consciously maintain autonomy and take an independent approach. India’s largest trading European partner, Germany, has fairly adopted the second approach by charting Indo-Pacific Policy Guidelines in September 2020 and adopting European Union’s Indo-Pacific Strategy published in 2021. When the Ambassador of The Federal Republic of Germany to India, Walter J. Lindner said that “The Indo-Pacific, with India as its centrepiece, looms large in Germany’s and the European Union’s foreign policy” (January 21, 2022), he evidently hinted at the growing significance of India, now more than ever. Since 20% of German trade is conducted in the Indo-Pacific, this region is of exceptional importance to the German economy. Thus it is vital for India, the “maritime powerhouse”, and Germany, India’s largest trading partner in Europe, to be on the same page.
Significance of Indo-Pacific and Potential areas of Indo-German Partnership
Although there exists conceptual and definitive disagreements on the idea of “Indo-Pacific” construct, most of the actors however agree on common principles of rule-based order for the region and “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP) model, which has always been quintessential to India’s and Germany’s foreign policy. To devise a comprehensive Indo-German partnership strategy, it is important to decode the potential of the stage of partnerships. With reference to the most inclusive mental map of the Indo-Pacific accepted by India and Japan, the region stretches from the Western shore of the Americas to the shores of the African continent and includes land masses surrounding it. Reflecting on the expanse of the region, it is home to major Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC), with prominent presence of strategic choke points from the Horn of Africa to the Malacca Strait which are crucial links in Europe-Asia trade. Indo-Pacific hosts 46% of the world’s merchandise trade and 62% of global GDP, thus its stability is essential for lucrative global economic activity. Even the slightest skirmishes in this region are sufficient enough to disrupt the global supply chain. India and Germany have been strong advocates for inclusive and open trade and have reiterated the importance of freedom of navigation. Recent visit of the German military naval vessel, Frigate Bayern F217, and the subsequent joint naval exercises show India’s and Germany’s commitment towards ensuring a secure Indo-Pacific region. Moreover, the German warship sailed via the South China Sea which symbolises that Germany is committed to uphold UNCLOS and rules-based international order. This, if not a befitting response, is atleast a gentle reminder to China that its disregard for international rules and customs, like the ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration rendering its nine dash line claims as invalid, holds no water in a globalised world moving towards multilateralism.
Reflecting on the notion of “Indo-Pacific is the return of history” as remarked by the Minister of External Affairs of India, S. Jaishankar, in 2021 during Indo-Pacific Business Summit, Germany has explicitly recognised the importance of freedom of choice in Indo-Pacific countries in order to legitimise emergence of multipolarity and rebalancing power dynamics as in pre cold war era. In order to strengthen multilateralism and power balance in the region, Germany has sought to enhance relations with various regional groupings like The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Coordination (BIMSTEC) and Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA). In all these partnerships, the main catch remains that India is considered de facto leader of these groups which expands the scope as well as capacity of Indo-German corporations in areas of maritime governance and security, sustainable development, disaster management, climate policy and development projects.
This region is often referred to as a “biogeographic zone” pertaining to its rich marine ecosystem and abundance of natural resources. Since most of the littoral countries are either second or third world nations pursuing extensive developmental activities, exploitation of natural resources goes cheek by jowl. Indo-Pacific accounts for more than half of global carbon emissions ipso facto. Thus sustainable development is an absolute necessity. Sustainable energy production and consumption, environmental conservation and tackling climate change has always been topmost priority in Indo-German partnership models. Flagship projects like Germany supporting construction of a solar plant in Dhule region of Maharashtra is of great significance given its multiple benefits from generating 125 Megawatt of energy to saving 155,000 tons of annual CO2 emissions. This signifies the importance of Indo-German partnership to walk the talk committed in the recent COP26 summit in Glasgow and the Paris Agreement.
Moreover, culture, education and science remains the backdrop of the future developmental projects. India and Germany are closely working in devising innovative models based on science and technology in order to ensure scientific development of the Indo-Pacific region. Institutes like Indo-German Science and Technology Centre and the German Centres for Research and Innovation in New Delhi are not only pivotal for academic exchanges and technological flagship projects but also provide a balance in demographic and infrastructural challenges faced by Germany and India respectively. Germany, with an ageing population but state of the art technology, when put together with the young and skilled population of India is a match made in heaven.
Way Forward and Suggestions
It is important to note that in emerging security dynamics, the nature of conflicts are now changing. This has given birth to non-traditional threats in this region. Piracy is very prominent in the Indo-Pacific, especially in regions near Somalia, Gulf of Aden and Hormuz Strait that host major economic and trade activities. Threats like piracy and illegal marine trafficking can be checked by collaborative and integrated efforts of the nations. India being the maritime powerhouse and a strategic partner of Germany, should increase collective and conscious policing of the region.
One of the key principles issued in Germany’s Indo-Pacific strategy is to enforce “universal and indivisible human rights” in the Indo-Pacific. Apart from the golden culture of the Indian subcontinent, the region is also known for “golden crescent” and “golden triangle” zones, however the latter are darker than glittering. These zones engulf India and account for most of the illegal drug, arms and human trafficking in the world. Illegal trafficking continues to haunt human security in the Indian subcontinent. Given Germany’s recent victories in tackling human trafficking, both India and Germany can endeavour in curbing illicit trafficking that continues to threaten socio-economic prosperity of the region.
Another key highlight of Germany’s Indo-Pacific Policy Guidelines remains “sustainable palm oil development”. India’s recent announcement on expanding area under cultivation of oil palm has reignited the rubric of “environment versus development”. Thus sustainable cultivation of oil palm under India’s Special Program on Oil Palm Area Expansion (OPAE) using state of the art techniques to minimise environmental degradation is another potential area of Indo-German partnership.
In lieu of the trade wars in last decade followed by COVID-19 pandemic, the world is witnessing “deglobalisation” and inward looking economic policies. This has affected the idea of shared and mutual prosperity of all nations. With Germany holding G7 Presidency this year, and India assuming G20 Presidency, the two countries can step up cooperation in bringing synergies between these two groupings and bringing the world closer on shared interests in order to ensure status quo ante which is essential for peaceful coexistence.
India and Germany share a myriad of common objectives in the Indo-Pacific region especially when it comes to ensuring rules-based domain, climate change, sustainable development, blue economy, security and prosperity, free navigation activities, clean energies and technological aspirations. Thus the de facto leader of the European Union and de facto leader of South Asia should utilise this opportunity for joint and coordinated action in the realm of the new strategic reality of the 21st century and the geopolitical advantage it places India in.
References :
https://www.swp-berlin.org/publications/products/research_papers/2020RP09_IndoPacific.pdf
https://thediplomat.com/2019/07/what-is-the-indo-pacific/
https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/germany-takes-view-indo-pacific/
https://www.orfonline.org/research/partnership-for-a-rules-based-order-in-the-indo-pacific/
https://www.csis.org/events/enhancing-democratic-partnership-indo-pacific-region
onducted a total of five underground nuclear tests, breaking a 24-year self-imposed moratorium on nuclear testing. Pakistan followed, claiming 5 tests on May 28, 1998, and an additional test on May 30. The unannounced tests created a global storm of criticism, as well as a serious setback for decades of U.S. nuclear nonproliferation efforts in South Asia. On May 13, 1998, President Clinton imposed economic and military sanctions on India, mandated by Section 102 of the Arms Export Control Act (AECA), and applied the same sanctions to Pakistan on May 30. Some effects of the sanctions on India included: termination of $21 million in FY1998 economic development assistance; postponement of $1.7 billion in lending by the International Financial Institutions (IFI), as supported by the Group of Eight (G-8) leading industrial nations; prohibition on loans or credit from U.S. banks to the government of India; and termination of Foreign Military Sales under the Arms Export Control Act. Humanitarian assistance, food, or other agricultural commodities are excepted from sanctions under the law. 
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