– By Kriti Keya
With diplomatic talks seemingly stalled and the battle of the giants intensifying, let’s look at the current Ukrainian crisis that has the potential of igniting a confrontation with echoes of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis.
History
Breaking of its western territory into independent states including Ukraine, spelt the end of the Cold War superpower- The Soviet Union. When these countries started drifting towards developing a stronger relationship with western Europe, Russia started to destabilize them. Similarly, in East Ukraine (particularly Donbass Region) that has been the hotbed of rebellion and pro-Russian sentiment, Russia supports the separatists with arms and ammunition to thwart the aim of the United States and its European allies of making Ukraine a western bulwark on Russia’s border.
Conflict simmering since 2014
The conflict began at the end of 2013 when the Ukrainian government suspended European Union talks in order to build stronger ties with Russia. The pro-Moscow move led to a massive protest in capital Kiev which came to be known as the ‘Maidan Protests’. This subsequently followed violent repressions and forced President Viktor Yanukovich from power in February 2014.
The day after Yanukovich fled, Ukrainian parliament voted to repeal the law that gave the status of Regional Language to Russian and other minority languages. The government set about blocking access to Russian TV and radio channels for airing war propaganda. Even though the language legislation was then not put into force, in Ukraine, where a very large minority identify themselves with the Russian culture, millions of people felt under siege in what they regarded as their homeland. It was this that sowed the seeds of resistance in the eastern provinces.
Taking advantage of the already disruptive situation, Russia in March 2014 invaded and annexed Crimea (reportedly with no bloodshed or violence). In the subsequent month, pro-Russian separatists declared independence in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine and fighting broke out. Ceasefire agreements between the West-Ukrainian forces (backed by the Ukrainian parliament) and East- Separatist forces (backed by Russia) in this region have been violated several times.
Russia in all its attempts is trying to skilfully apply its Salami tactics of slicing and conquering as is evident from the speculations of the US foreign ministry which said that it had information the Russian government was considering former Ukrainian lawmaker Yevhen Murayev as a potential candidate to head a pro-Russian leadership.
Involvement of the West
Since the Cold War ended, NATO has expanded eastward by taking new countries, some of which also included former Soviet Union nations. Russia viewed this as a threat as they resisted the incorporation of a state ‘near abroad’ into a military alliance. Ukraine joining NATO thus, follows the same logic as that of the US’s Monroe Doctrine which declared separate spheres of influence for the United States and Europe, non-colonization and, non-intervention.
Therefore, NATO’S final declaration at Bucharest Summit, April 3, 2008, “NATO welcomes Ukraine’s and Georgia’s Euro Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO”, hitting Moscow on its Achilles’ heel.
The idea of defending Kiev is supported with the principal arguments by the West that if Russia’s aggression isn’t stopped in Ukraine, it will postulate a domino effect whereby Moscow will be emboldened to grab other independent former Soviet republics under its thumb in ostensible defence of Russian minorities. Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008, and its seizure of Crimea in 2014, on the other hand were a consequence of the imbalance of power created by NATO expansion eastward.
Vestiges of a new missile crises and the Possibility of War
Ukraine has been the apple of discord in Moscow’s relation with the West, with Russia’s troops massed near Ukraine’s border and NATO’S forces on standby in case Russia attacks its neighbour. Ukraine as a whole is not united against Russia because of a longstanding cultural split within. Its geographical location also places Ukraine between the horns of dilemma where on one side it shares borders with four NATO countries and on the other, one of the main natural-gas pipelines of Russia passes through Ukraine.
The current situation echoes the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 when, the leader of the Soviet Union, Nikita Khruschev decided to convert Cuba (an ally) of the Soviet Union into a Russian base because he was worried that the USA would invade communist-rules Cuba and overthrow Fidel Castro, its president. In 1962, he placed nuclear missiles in Cuba. The installation of these weapons put the US, for the first time, under fire from close range by the USSR. Russia is currently under the same argument with its Foreign Minister Lavrov saying, “NATO has already come close to Ukraine. They also want to drag this country here, although everyone understands that Ukraine is not ready and could make no contribution to strengthening NATO security”, has mobilised more than 100,000 troops with arms and ammunition around Ukraine’s border.
Even though Russia currently denies any possible invasion of Ukraine (as it did in 2014, when it seized Crimea) and alleges the West of putting out information “laced with lies”, it has used its build-up of an estimated 100,000 troops along Ukraine’s borders to the north, east and south to force the West to negotiate over a range of demands to redraw the security map of Europe by securing written commitments from West to stop further eastward expansion of NATO. Among the most important demands was that Ukraine should never be allowed to join NATO. The US has ruled this out in its confidential response as is evident in what Putin told The French President Emmanuel Macron that the West has “ignored” Moscow’s security concerns.
Three weeks after the Soviet Union had placed the nuclear weapons in Cuba in 1962, the Americans became aware of it. The then US President, John F. Kennedy, determined to get Khrushchev to remove the missiles and nuclear weapons from Cuba, ordered American warships to intercept any Soviet ships heading to Cuba as a way of warning the USSR of his seriousness. A clash seemed imminent in what came to be known as the Cuban Missile Crisis. Similarly, the US has once again taken the same stance through its $200 million support in the defensive military to Kyiv to reinforce the US’ commitment to “Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity”. Russia, on the other hand, is “muscle-flexing” by sending its troops to Belarus for major war games under the pretext of the so-called “drills” which could be a prelude to an invasion by using Belarusian territory as is suspected by the West.
During the Cuban Missile Crisis (1962), the prospects of a clash seemed imminent and it therefore became a high point of what came to be known as the Cold War (as it never escalated into a hot war). Even though there were wars in various regions, with the two superpowers and their allies involved in warfare, at least the world avoided another global war.
With the current Russia allegedly engaging in ‘hybrid war’ against Ukraine, and expressing a possibility of expanding military cooperation with Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua as part of its retaliatory measures. And the US on the other hand, authorising the Baltic states to send Stinger anti-aircraft missiles to Ukrainian forces and attempting to choke off broad swaths of industrial and consumer technologies to Russia through its sanctions and penalties should Russia attack, only intensify the current situation which will not just impact Europe but will be like opening of a Pandora’s box for the world.
Policy Recommendations
Peace with Russia in Europe might be necessary for America to focus on Asia as hostility between the West and Russia could push Moscow’s Salami slicing tactics to cut the ribbons of politics with Beijing. Also, since Europe depends on Russia for a third of its natural gas-providing enormous leverage to Putin in any dispute with the West, therefore, any interruption would exacerbate an existing energy crisis caused by a shortage. Thus, the situation has to be diffused by negotiations on both sides otherwise it will lead to grave threat to global peace and stability.
Both the US and Russia should engage in bold diplomatic negotiations under the aegis of The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (ONSE) to fashion a new security order that is better suited to the current era. A new agreement process should firstly put arms control and denuclearizing Europe on the table. Then all the parties should agree on Ukraine as a neutral country. For this, reversing the Bucharest Declaration of 2008 is the need of the hour and Russia should accept that it does not own Ukraine. The Ukrainian government should accept equal status for Russian-speaking Ukrainians and make further developments to eradicate any possible fear of subjugation and to strengthen the trust of its minorities. The only hope now is a diplomatic scramble with the reminiscence of the logic of deterrence to avert a potentially devastating new war in Europe as neither side can afford to initiate war because of unacceptable destruction that they are capable of. All eyes are now set on the negotiation in Paris, in the presence of interlocutors from France, Germany, US and Russia even though it’s going to be a labour of Hercules.
References :
‘Everything you need to know about the Ukraine Crises’, by Max Fisher (September 3, 2014) // https://www.vox.com/2014/9/3/18088560/ukraine-everything-you-need-to-know
“The Ukraine crisis is not what it seems”, by Robert H Wade (March 2015) // https://mondediplo.com/7660
‘Moscow’s Salami Tactics’, by Janusz Bugajski (December 12, 2019) // https://cepa.org/moscows-salami-tactics/
‘UK accuses Kremlin of trying to install pro-Russian leader in Ukraine’, Reuters (January 22, 2022) // https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-accuses-kremlin-trying-install-pro-russian-leader-ukraine-2022-01-22/
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The foreign ministry
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