By Vidushi Tiwari

– Intern IPPCS’21

With advancing instability in Afghanistan and imminent threats to stability in Central Asia, India has become all the more critical to realize its strategic interests and investments in the region. Situated in the heart of Eurasia, the area is a geopolitical hotspot and holds profound significance for India because of its geographical proximity, strategic location, and resource richness. Both sides have been battling common enemies of terrorism, religious fundamentalism and drugs-funded violence for decades now, making cooperation to curb these nemeses even more cardinal. India and Central Asia combined possess the power to provide regional stability to South Asia.

Since their very independence, India has been maintaining close ties with Central Asian Republics (CARs), being the first non-communist country to give them diplomatic recognition after the Soviet disintegration. All thanks to similar historical experiences and common cultural linkages, which provided the premise for a powerful partnership. However, we need to expand and enhance our engagements with this predominant part of our extended neighbourhood to optimally tap their economic and energy potential. 

Recently, India has made notable progress in the region through a renovation of Chabahar port, developing the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and becoming a member of the Ashgabat Agreement. As part of our ongoing efforts to boost strategic partnership with CARs, the second meeting of the India-Central Asia Dialogue was held last year in which India announced an additional USD 1 billion Line of Credit for these countries to finance major infrastructural and connectivity projects, high-impact community development projects and the establishment of working groups by India Central Asia Business Council to promote business in the region. All the members strongly condemned terrorism and reaffirmed their resolve to combat it, underlining the need for every country to ensure that their territory is not used to launch terror attacks. All countries called for the settlement of the Afghan conflict and decided to work for the Afghan Peace Process jointly.

The first meeting of the dialogue was held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, in January 2019. India proposed the ‘India-Central Asia Development Group’ institution to take forward development partnership between both parties and initiated a dialogue on air corridors to give these landlocked countries transit through the Indian Ocean. The CARs also appreciated India’s initiative in Chabahar, and India invited them to become a part of the project. 

Although India has shown active involvement with the region, it’s certainly not enough, especially with China’s sinister intentions around the corner and its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which can considerably undermine India’s influence in the region. Therefore, New Delhi needs to increase its footprints in the resource-rich area to block China’s massive inroads and fight terror befittingly, including in Afghanistan.

What we need is a dynamic diplomatic, defence and economic partnership between India and Central Asia. However, the lack of a shared border significantly limits the scope of synergy, with Pakistan’s hostility and Afghan instability only augmenting more obstructions to the pre-existing problem. Therefore, India needs to resort to alternative ways of transport by building air corridors or becoming part of transport corridors to facilitate connectivity and ameliorate its reach in the region. A lot of such projects are already underway, the modernization of the Chabahar port in Iran by India being the most illustrious one, which will act as a vital point of entry into the Eurasian markets and can also become a critical link in trade and transport communications between the demands of Central and South Asia, but to optimize its operation, a Central Asian state needs to join the project as a direct stakeholder. The construction of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) is yet another crucial strategic advancement in the area. Additionally, India’s ‘Connect Central Asia’ policy, which catalogues a set of comprehensive provisions for political, security, economic and cultural cooperation, will play a pivotal role in this, but we need to implement it more effectively and efficiently. 

Politically, CARs are highly fragile ravaged by terrorism, making the region volatile for trade. Several administrative lesions such as non-availability of hard currency and banking services and rampant corruption blemish the area creating roadblocks in pursuit of smooth bilateral relations. Porous borders and rampant corruption coupled with soaring opium production (Golden Crescent and Golden Triangle) make the region a powerhouse for drugs smuggling and money laundering, giving birth to a cohesive nexus of narcotics-sponsored terrorism. And now, the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan will only make matters worse, be it for ongoing projects or the region’s overall prosperity.

Security and stability in Central Asia are imperative for peace and economic progress in India. And therefore, India needs to collaborate with these countries on a greater level to cut the roots of the drugs trade, arms trafficking and terrorism by destroying terrorist safe-havens, handling networks, infrastructure and funding channels, which will also help India tackle the cross-border terrorism in Kashmir. However, the current Afghan crisis poses severe challenges to cooperation in curbing terrorism.

Presently, India shares a minimal trade volume with Central Asia, which can be increased only by substantially improving transport connectivity. However, owing to higher economic growth in recent times, CARs are getting rapidly linked to the global market for manufacturing, supplies of raw materials and services, making several areas attractive for investment. Besides, these countries are also increasingly getting integrated into the East-West Trans-Eurasian transit economic corridors, providing extensive scope to Indian companies to invest in these countries, given India’s renewed interest in the region.

For a robust consortium, India needs to further its interests in Central Asia while also fulfilling its interests to benefit mutually. And therefore, India should use its instrument of economic leverages more efficiently to build better ties with Central Asia. For example, India should sign a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which can stimulate the trade to 170 billion dollars from meagre 10 billion dollars.

Furthermore, Central Asia has large tracts of cultivable land lying barren and offering enormous opportunities to cultivate pulses. Indian agriculture companies can set up commercial agro-industrial complexes in Central Asia. India is rapidly becoming a regional power that requires a continuous and uninterrupted supply of fuel and energy, which can easily be provided by CARs. The region is rich in numerous natural resources such as uranium, aluminium, antimony, petroleum, natural gas, gold, silver, and coal, which can best meet Indian energy requirements. And resilient relations with India will provide an assured market to these republics for their raw materials, minerals, hydroelectric power etc.

Consequently, Central Asia is also facing many challenges in achieving food security, and Indian expertise in the field can prove the panacea for the region. With its profound experience in boosting food and milk production and modernizing agricultural technology from the green and white revolution, India can remarkably assist these countries in accelerating agrarian production. Another critical area of cooperation between India and CARs can be commercial farming.

Most importantly, India can provide for a viable partner, particularly in the security sector. For example, India has been providing defence training and technical assistance to CARs. Still, the Indian Army should organize more joint exercises with the militaries of these countries to ensure greater engagement. In addition, measures such as relaxation in visa regimes, investment in the agriculture sector, establishing schools and universities and encouraging tourism can significantly improve India’s position in the region.

Above all, India can provide substantial foreign investment and technical assistance in infrastructure, healthcare, education, etc. The Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) Program provides technical service and training in banking, information technology, and remote sensing in premier Indian institutions. This program can significantly contribute to human resource development in Central Asia.

In conclusion, Indian Foreign Policy must focus on Central Asia because India has a wide range of security, energy and economic interests. Moreover, through cinema, music, yoga, literature and educational programs, India reinforces cultural connections with the region and essentially enjoys tremendous goodwill in these countries. Hence, India must make optimal soft power and its ready acceptability in CARs to boost bilateral ties.

Moreover, India must make sincere efforts to step up multilateral engagement with CARs using the synergy of existing organizations like the Eurasian Economic Community (EEC) to counter China’s BRI. India’s “Look East” policy has concentrated all of its economic and diplomatic resources in Southeast Asia, but now the need of the hour is to look north too. India needs to urgently change its desultory attitude towards Central Asia and pay heed to it equally, if not more. India must appropriate a multi-dimensional approach and must attempt to revitalize relations with the Central Asian Republics. Both India and CARs share common perceptions on various regional and international issues and therefore should promote peace and spearhead the course of cooperation and collaboration in the region.

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